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NATCOPHARM NSE Segment

⏱️ Last Scan Run: 2026-10-14 06:52 AM IST

₹789.0
-11.55 (-1.44%)
⚠️ NOT A TRADE RECOMMENDATION: These stock metrics and intraday signals are algorithmically generated based on quantitative characteristics that may be relevant to trading. Inclusion or analysis does not mean BUY, SELL or HOLD. This drilldown is a starting point for independent research, not a prediction of future price movement. Markets involve substantial risk, and you may lose some or all of your trading capital.

📊 Technical Price Chart

✨ Multi-Timeframe Trading Setup & Insights

Engine: Gemini (gemini-flash-lite-latest)

Market Analysis Summary:

"NATCOPHARM is currently trading near its fresh 52-week low of ₹787.2, reflecting persistent selling pressure and negative sentiment following a weak Q4 earnings report showing a 34% drop in net profit. The stock exhibits heavy underperformance relative to the broader Nifty 50 index, which is up 1.6%. Technical indicators such as RSI at 42.57, Stochastic %K at 3.06, Williams %R at -96.94, and CCI at -151.83 clearly indicate deeply oversold conditions, opening up possibilities for a mean reversion bounce, though primary trend structures remain bearish below the 20D, 50D, and 200D EMAs."

Intraday (1 Day) SELL
Conviction: 7/10
Rationale: Using intraday checkpoints: Revalidated using checkpoints up to 15:31. The stock steadily drifted lower throughout the session, closing near the day's low of ₹787.2 with negative momentum and persistent underperformance against Nifty (-3.05% relative strength). Selling on minor intraday rallies towards VWAP remains favored given the lack of buying volume (RVOL 0.58x).
Entry: ₹789.0 - ₹792.0
SL: ₹800.5
Target: ₹775.0
Swing (1-6 Mo) HOLD
Conviction: 6/10
Rationale: While oscillators like Williams %R (-96.94) and Stochastic point to extreme oversold conditions that could trigger a technical bounce toward the middle Bollinger Band or 20-day EMA, fundamental headwinds from poor Q4 earnings and active negative momentum counsel against establishing fresh swing long positions until a confirmed reversal pattern forms.
Entry: ₹750.0 - ₹780.0
SL: ₹740.0
Target: ₹840.0
Long Term (1+ Yr) HOLD
Conviction: 5/10
Rationale: The stock is testing historical value zones near its 52-week lows following earnings contraction. Long-term investors should wait for structural stabilization, fundamental recovery in quarterly margins, and a reclaim of the 200-day EMA (₹906.28) before committing fresh capital for a multi-year recovery.
Entry: Accumulate selectively below ₹750
SL: ₹700.0
Target: ₹950.0

Technical Analysis & Overview:

  • Price action is heavily depressed, trading near the day's low of ₹787.2 and below VWAP (₹792.11). The stock is hugging the lower Bollinger Band (₹787.66) and trades well below major EMAs (9D at ₹804.77, 20D at ₹816.44, 50D at ₹848.76). Supertrend at ₹854.56 and Parabolic SAR at ₹832.94 both maintain a strong bearish structure.
  • Oscillators validate extreme oversold territory with Stochastic %K at 3.06, Williams %R at -96.94, and CCI at -151.83. RSI sits at 42.57, while the MACD remains negative (Line -14.47, Signal -13.54, Histogram -0.93) with an ADX of 25.06 confirming an active downward trend.

News & Sentiment Impact:

Recent corporate updates highlight significant headwinds for Natco Pharma, driven by a 34% drop in Q4 net profit to Rs 268 crore, triggering a 12% to 15% slump in share prices and driving the stock into a 52-week low streak. Upcoming ex-dividend dates provide minimal cushioning against the overarching fundamental contraction and negative sentiment, weighing heavily on medium-term and long-term momentum.

⚡ Intraday Live Validation WATCHING

Entry Decision
⛔ AVOID
Position Health
⚠️ AT RISK (Tighten SL)
Session VWAP ₹792.11
Peak Drawdown from High -1.7%
Intraday 5m EMA9 / EMA20 ₹789.28 / ₹789.22
Audit Reason: MOMENTUM_PULLBACK (-1.7% off high / Below 5m EMA9 Rs.789.28)

⏱️ Intraday Checkpoints Timeline

09:30 -0.26% (1.08x) ⛔ AVOID 🚨 EXIT
10:00 -0.39% (0.93x) ⛔ AVOID 🚨 EXIT
10:30 -0.95% (0.89x) ⛔ AVOID 🚨 EXIT
11:00 -0.76% (0.70x) ⛔ AVOID 🚨 EXIT
11:30 -0.89% (0.57x) ⛔ AVOID 🚨 EXIT
12:00 -1.18% (0.55x) ⛔ AVOID 🚨 EXIT
12:30 -1.10% (0.50x) ⛔ AVOID 🚨 EXIT
13:00 -1.29% (0.48x) ⛔ AVOID 🚨 EXIT
13:30 -1.51% (0.48x) ⛔ AVOID 🚨 EXIT
14:00 -1.46% (0.45x) ⛔ AVOID 🚨 EXIT
14:30 -1.47% (0.46x) ⛔ AVOID 🚨 EXIT
15:02 -1.47% (0.47x) ⛔ AVOID ⚠️ RISK
15:31 -1.51% (0.57x) ⛔ AVOID ⚠️ RISK

📊 Price Action Metrics

Open Price ₹800.55
Day's High ₹802.65
Day's Low ₹787.2
VWAP ₹792.11
Distance from Day's High 1.7%
Distance from Day's Low 0.23%
52-Week High ₹1226.8
52-Week Low ₹787.2

📈 Volume & Participation

Current Volume 277749
20-Day Avg Volume 475015.8
Relative Volume (RVOL) 0.58x
Nifty 50 Change 1.6%
Relative Strength vs. Nifty -3.05%

🎯 Comprehensive Technical Indicators Matrix Multi-Period SMAs, EMAs, Oscillators, Bands & Real-Time Verdicts

Indicator & Parameters Calculated Value(s) & Multi-Period Signals Verdict & Bias
RSI (14) 42.57 Bearish (≤45)
Average True Range (ATR 14) ₹21.65 (2.74% of Price) Neutral / Normal
Stochastics (14, 3) %K: 3.06 %D: 8.93 Oversold (≤20)
StochRSI (14) %K: 19.86 %D: 45.85 Oversold (≤20)
ADX (14) & DMI ADX: 25.06 +DI: 9.5 -DI: 22.09 Strong Bearish Trend (-DI)
Ultimate Oscillator (UO) 40.82 Bearish
Rate of Change (ROC 12) & Momentum ROC: -5.51% Momentum (10D): ₹-32.65 Bearish (-ROC)
Williams %R (14) -96.94 Oversold (≤-80)
MACD (12, 26, 9) MACD: -14.47 Signal: -13.54 Histogram: -0.93 Bearish (Line < Signal)
Supertrend (10, 3) ₹854.56 (Bearish) Bearish Trend
Bollinger Bands (20, 2) Upper: ₹843.38 Mid: ₹815.52 Lower: ₹787.66 Bearish (Below Mid)
Parabolic SAR ₹832.94 Bearish (Price < SAR)
Commodity Channel Index (CCI 20) -151.83 Strong Bearish (≤-100)
Simple Moving Averages (SMAs) 20D: ₹815.52 34D: ₹825.79 50D: ₹851.52 89D: ₹881.0 200D: ₹936.7 Bearish (Price < 20D < 50D)
Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) 9D: ₹804.77 20D: ₹816.44 34D: ₹831.5 50D: ₹848.76 89D: ₹880.89 200D: ₹906.28 Bearish Stack (Price < 9D < 20D)
TRIX (15) -0.2286% Bearish (<0)

📰 Latest Google News & Corporate Updates

Natco Pharma Share Price and fresh 52-week low: key data - Univest
Publisher: Univest | Published: Fri, 09 Oct 2026 04:00:00
Natco Pharma Ltd. 52 Week Low Streak: key stock context - Univest
Publisher: Univest | Published: Fri, 09 Oct 2026 04:54:00
Natco Pharma shares slump 15% after Q4 results; here's why the stock is falling - Business Today
Publisher: Business Today | Published: Fri, 29 May 2026 07:00:00

📚 Technical Indicator & Strategy Definitions

SMAs (Simple Moving Averages): Arithmetic mean of closing prices over multiple trading periods (20D, 34D, 50D, 89D, 200D). Price trading above the 200-day SMA indicates a long-term secular bull trend, while 20D/50D track short-to-medium term institutional support levels.
EMAs (Exponential Moving Averages): Weighted moving averages placing greater priority on recent price bars (9D, 20D, 34D, 50D, 89D, 200D). A progressive stack (EMA 9 > 20 > 50) confirms robust upward momentum and provides dynamic support during pullbacks.
ADX (Average Directional Index - 14) & DMI: Measures trend strength regardless of direction. An ADX value ≥ 25 confirms a strong trending market. Directional Movement (+DI / -DI) indicates which side is in control: +DI > -DI is bullish (buyers dominant), whereas -DI > +DI indicates bearish seller control.
VWAP (Volume Weighted Average Price): The average price weighted by intraday volume. Used as a benchmark by institutional participants; price trading above VWAP indicates intraday buyer control, while trading below VWAP indicates intraday seller pressure.
RSI (Relative Strength Index - 14) & StochRSI: Momentum oscillator measuring speed and magnitude of price movements (0–100). RSI > 70 is overbought; RSI < 30 is oversold; 50–60 signals bullish continuation. StochRSI applies stochastics to RSI to generate early inflection signals for trend shifts.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend-following momentum indicator displaying the spread between the 12 and 26-period EMAs against a 9-period signal line. MACD crossing above Signal is bullish; rising histogram bars signal accelerating upward momentum.
RVOL (Relative Volume Ratio): Compares current session volume against the 20-day historical average. RVOL ≥ 2.0x signals abnormal institutional participation, confirming the validity of breakouts and trend expansions.
Bollinger Bands (20, 2): Statistical volatility bands set ±2 standard deviations around a 20-period SMA. Contracting bandwidth ('squeeze') signals an impending explosive breakout, while price walking the upper band confirms aggressive trend expansion.
ATR (Average True Range - 14): Quantifies absolute market volatility in rupee terms over a 14-period lookback. Essential for setting volatility-adjusted trailing stop-losses, target sizing, and detecting range expansions.
Supertrend (10, 3): Volatility-based trend-following indicator calculated with ATR. Provides clear Bullish (green trailing line below price) or Bearish (red line above price) regimes to manage active trade trailing stops.
Stochastic Oscillator (%K, %D): Locates current closing price relative to the 14-period high-low range. Fast line (%K) crossing above smooth line (%D) in oversold territory (<20) confirms a buy reversal signal; crosses above 80 warn of overbought conditions.
CCI (Commodity Channel Index - 20): Measures price variation relative to its statistical average. CCI crossing above +100 signals strong uptrend breakout; crossing below -100 indicates deep downward momentum; zero-line cross marks cycle shifts.
Parabolic SAR (Stop and Reverse): Trailing stop overlay that follows price acceleration. When dots plot below price, the trend is bullish; a flip above price triggers trailing stop protection.
Williams %R (14) & TRIX (15): Williams %R reflects momentum relative to lookback highs (-20 to 0 overbought, -80 to -100 oversold). TRIX is a triple-smoothed EMA rate-of-change oscillator filtering noise to capture major cyclical momentum waves.
Relative Strength (vs. Nifty): Measures the percentage outperformance or underperformance against the benchmark Nifty 50 Index. Positive values identify leading stocks commanding institutional capital flow.
Intraday Regime & Permission Gates: 4-gate hierarchical risk firewall evaluating intraday structure, volume effort vs result at day highs, ATR peak drawdown, and VWAP integrity to prevent buying into collapsing peaks.
Opportunity Score (0 – 100) & Risk Score (0 – 100): Dual independent quantitative ratings: Opportunity Score (≥75 top-tier setup) evaluates momentum, volume, pattern, sector tailwinds, and RS. Risk Score (<50 preferred) evaluates drawdown history, resistance proximity, and volatility.
Setup Archetypes: Algorithmic classification: Breakout Candidate (near 20D/52W high with expansion), Pullback Continuation (EMA20 retest in uptrend), Momentum Continuation (high RS5D + ATR expansion), and Reversal Candidate (extended mean-reversion).