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ITC NSE Segment

⏱️ Last Scan Run: 2026-10-14 06:50 AM IST

₹261.0
+3.1 (+1.2%)
⚠️ NOT A TRADE RECOMMENDATION: These stock metrics and intraday signals are algorithmically generated based on quantitative characteristics that may be relevant to trading. Inclusion or analysis does not mean BUY, SELL or HOLD. This drilldown is a starting point for independent research, not a prediction of future price movement. Markets involve substantial risk, and you may lose some or all of your trading capital.

📊 Technical Price Chart

✨ Multi-Timeframe Trading Setup & Insights

Engine: Gemini (gemini-2.5-flash)

Market Analysis Summary:

"ITC is currently trading near its 52-week low, showing strong bearish sentiment in the medium to long term as evidenced by price below all major EMAs and recent block deal news. Intraday, however, the stock has shown resilience, trading above its VWAP with consistent upward momentum, though with below-average volume. Mixed news, including significant block deals driving recent declines, is counterbalanced by a recent Citi upgrade and ongoing speculation about a business demerger, which could be a major long-term value unlocker."

Intraday (1 Day) No Intraday Trade
Conviction: 6/10
Rationale: Using intraday checkpoints: Revalidated using checkpoints up to 15:00. While ITC has shown consistent positive intraday momentum, trading above its VWAP (₹259.82) and near its day high (₹261.85), the current price (₹261.0) is approaching immediate strong resistance levels at the 9D EMA (₹262.22) and the Middle Bollinger Band/20D SMA (₹264.04). Furthermore, today's volume (RVOL 0.7x) is below average, indicating a lack of strong institutional participation to support a sustained breakout. Relative strength versus a strong Nifty is negative. Given the limited upside to immediate resistance and the unfavorable risk-reward for a fresh entry at current elevated intraday levels, a favorable intraday setup is not present.
Entry: N/A
SL: N/A
Target: N/A
Swing (1-6 Mo) BUY
Conviction: 7/10
Rationale: Despite a clear bearish trend confirmed by EMAs and ADX, ITC is trading near its 52-week low (₹253.15), which can act as a psychological support. Recent heavy institutional selling (block deals) has likely led to a capitulation of weak hands, potentially setting the stage for a technical rebound. A key positive catalyst is Citi's recent rating upgrade and target price increase, suggesting institutional confidence in the stock's valuation at these depressed levels. While the MACD is still bearish, the shrinking negative histogram indicates a weakening of the selling pressure. This recommendation represents a contrarian play, anticipating a bounce back towards key moving averages like the 89D EMA, driven by value buying and a potential shift in sentiment.
Entry: ₹255.0 - ₹262.0
SL: ₹250.0
Target: ₹275.0
Long Term (1+ Yr) BUY
Conviction: 8/10
Rationale: Despite current technical weakness and trading near its 52-week low, ITC remains a fundamentally strong company with a diversified portfolio spanning FMCG, Hotels, Agri, and Paperboards. The primary long-term catalyst is the ongoing speculation and potential for a business demerger, particularly of its non-cigarette segments. Such a strategic move could significantly unlock shareholder value by allowing different business segments to be valued independently, effectively addressing the conglomerate discount. Citi's recent upgrade further reinforces the view that the stock is undervalued at current levels. While relative strength versus Nifty is currently negative, its defensive characteristics, consistent dividend payouts, and strong brand presence make it an attractive long-term accumulation candidate on dips. The current depressed price provides a compelling entry point for long-term investors seeking value and potential restructuring benefits.
Entry: Accumulate on dips below ₹260.0
SL: ₹220.0
Target: ₹340.0

Technical Analysis & Overview:

  • Current price (₹261.0) is above VWAP (₹259.82) but remains significantly below all key SMAs and EMAs (20D, 34D, 50D, 89D, 200D), underscoring a prevailing bearish trend across multiple timeframes. The Supertrend (10,3) at ₹273.46 confirms a bearish signal. Price is currently between the Middle (₹264.04) and Lower (₹255.21) Bollinger Bands, suggesting a bounce from lower levels but encountering resistance at the Middle Band.
  • The RSI(14) at 46.56 is neutral but has ample room to move, indicating the stock is not oversold yet on daily charts. Stochastic %K (43.85) and StochRSI %K (34.7) are in the neutral-to-lower range, showing some potential for a short-term upward swing. The MACD line (-1.83) is below the signal line (-1.68), indicating bearish momentum; however, the negative histogram (-0.15) is shrinking, suggesting a potential weakening of the bearish pressure or a pending bullish crossover. ADX (26.09) above 25 signifies a strong trend, with -DI (21.85) dominating +DI (13.13), confirming the strength of the current downtrend.

News & Sentiment Impact:

The recent news flow for ITC presents a bifurcated sentiment. On the negative side, reports of a substantial ₹9,437-crore block deal following a GQG stake sale have triggered sharp declines and created significant downward pressure, reflecting institutional exits and contributing to the stock's underperformance. Conversely, a recent upgrade from Citi, accompanied by a higher target price, injects a positive catalyst, implying that at current depressed levels, some analysts see compelling value. The persistent speculation about a potential business demerger, particularly of its non-cigarette businesses, remains a crucial long-term narrative. If executed, a demerger could unlock substantial hidden value by allowing different business segments to be valued independently, effectively addressing the conglomerate discount that has historically plagued ITC. While block deals have created immediate headwinds, the demerger talks and a major analyst upgrade offer a glimmer of hope for future re-rating, particularly for medium to long-term horizons.

⚡ Intraday Live Validation ACTIVE_BUY

Entry Decision
⛔ AVOID
Position Health
🛡️ HEALTHY (Hold)
Session VWAP ₹259.82
Peak Drawdown from High -0.32%
Intraday 5m EMA9 / EMA20 ₹260.53 / ₹260.19
Audit Reason: UPTREND_HOLDING_VWAP (Above VWAP Rs.259.82 & EMA9 Rs.260.53)

⏱️ Intraday Checkpoints Timeline

09:30 +0.41% (1.24x) ⚪ WAIT 🛡️ HOLD
10:00 +0.70% (0.93x) ⚪ WAIT 🛡️ HOLD
10:30 +0.81% (0.84x) ⛔ AVOID 🛡️ HOLD
11:00 +0.47% (1.30x) ⚪ WAIT 🛡️ HOLD
11:30 +0.54% (1.13x) ⚪ WAIT 🛡️ HOLD
12:00 +0.74% (0.97x) ⚪ WAIT 🛡️ HOLD
12:30 +0.97% (0.86x) ⚪ WAIT 🛡️ HOLD
13:00 +0.87% (0.77x) ⚪ WAIT 🛡️ HOLD
13:30 +0.85% (0.71x) ⚪ WAIT 🛡️ HOLD
14:00 +0.50% (0.67x) ⛔ AVOID 🛡️ HOLD
14:30 +0.72% (0.65x) ⛔ AVOID 🛡️ HOLD
15:00 +0.81% (0.66x) ⛔ AVOID 🛡️ HOLD

📊 Price Action Metrics

Open Price ₹259.0
Day's High ₹261.85
Day's Low ₹257.2
VWAP ₹259.82
Distance from Day's High 0.32%
Distance from Day's Low 1.48%
52-Week High ₹426.4
52-Week Low ₹253.15

📈 Volume & Participation

Current Volume 13435481
20-Day Avg Volume 19237452.4
Relative Volume (RVOL) 0.7x
Nifty 50 Change 1.6%
Relative Strength vs. Nifty -0.4%

🎯 Comprehensive Technical Indicators Matrix Multi-Period SMAs, EMAs, Oscillators, Bands & Real-Time Verdicts

Indicator & Parameters Calculated Value(s) & Multi-Period Signals Verdict & Bias
RSI (14) 46.56 Neutral (45–55)
Average True Range (ATR 14) ₹7.02 (2.69% of Price) Neutral / Normal
Stochastics (14, 3) %K: 43.85 %D: 47.39 Bearish (%K < %D)
StochRSI (14) %K: 34.7 %D: 34.57 Bullish (%K > %D)
ADX (14) & DMI ADX: 26.09 +DI: 13.13 -DI: 21.85 Strong Bearish Trend (-DI)
Ultimate Oscillator (UO) 53.4 Bullish
Rate of Change (ROC 12) & Momentum ROC: -2.61% Momentum (10D): ₹-4.2 Bearish (-ROC)
Williams %R (14) -56.15 Bearish
MACD (12, 26, 9) MACD: -1.83 Signal: -1.68 Histogram: -0.15 Bearish (Line < Signal)
Supertrend (10, 3) ₹273.46 (Bearish) Bearish Trend
Bollinger Bands (20, 2) Upper: ₹272.86 Mid: ₹264.04 Lower: ₹255.21 Bearish (Below Mid)
Parabolic SAR ₹268.05 Bearish (Price < SAR)
Commodity Channel Index (CCI 20) -98.87 Neutral
Simple Moving Averages (SMAs) 20D: ₹264.04 34D: ₹264.11 50D: ₹268.6 89D: ₹275.84 200D: ₹299.04 Bearish (Price < 20D < 50D)
Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) 9D: ₹262.22 20D: ₹263.68 34D: ₹265.79 50D: ₹268.64 89D: ₹276.53 200D: ₹301.32 Bearish Stack (Price < 9D < 20D)
TRIX (15) -0.0848% Bearish (<0)

📰 Latest Google News & Corporate Updates

Cigarette Stock: Should ITC Ltd Split Its Business Into 1:2? What's Smoking In This FMCG Giant? - Goodreturns
Publisher: Goodreturns | Published: Tue, 13 Oct 2026 08:28:59
ITC stock falls over 4%, among top Nifty losers as Rs 9,437-crore block deal follows GQG stake sale - Moneycontrol.com
Publisher: Moneycontrol.com | Published: Thu, 08 Oct 2026 04:36:19
ITC share price dips 4%, will it bounce back? Experts' view, target price, stop-loss - Livemint
Publisher: Livemint | Published: Thu, 08 Oct 2026 07:36:29
ITC shares tumble 4% after reports of ₹9,400 crore block deal: What we know so far - Upstox
Publisher: Upstox | Published: Thu, 08 Oct 2026 07:25:45
ITC jumps 5% as Citi upgrades rating, target. What prompted bullish view? - Business Standard
Publisher: Business Standard | Published: Mon, 05 Oct 2026 07:28:09

📚 Technical Indicator & Strategy Definitions

SMAs (Simple Moving Averages): Arithmetic mean of closing prices over multiple trading periods (20D, 34D, 50D, 89D, 200D). Price trading above the 200-day SMA indicates a long-term secular bull trend, while 20D/50D track short-to-medium term institutional support levels.
EMAs (Exponential Moving Averages): Weighted moving averages placing greater priority on recent price bars (9D, 20D, 34D, 50D, 89D, 200D). A progressive stack (EMA 9 > 20 > 50) confirms robust upward momentum and provides dynamic support during pullbacks.
ADX (Average Directional Index - 14) & DMI: Measures trend strength regardless of direction. An ADX value ≥ 25 confirms a strong trending market. Directional Movement (+DI / -DI) indicates which side is in control: +DI > -DI is bullish (buyers dominant), whereas -DI > +DI indicates bearish seller control.
VWAP (Volume Weighted Average Price): The average price weighted by intraday volume. Used as a benchmark by institutional participants; price trading above VWAP indicates intraday buyer control, while trading below VWAP indicates intraday seller pressure.
RSI (Relative Strength Index - 14) & StochRSI: Momentum oscillator measuring speed and magnitude of price movements (0–100). RSI > 70 is overbought; RSI < 30 is oversold; 50–60 signals bullish continuation. StochRSI applies stochastics to RSI to generate early inflection signals for trend shifts.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend-following momentum indicator displaying the spread between the 12 and 26-period EMAs against a 9-period signal line. MACD crossing above Signal is bullish; rising histogram bars signal accelerating upward momentum.
RVOL (Relative Volume Ratio): Compares current session volume against the 20-day historical average. RVOL ≥ 2.0x signals abnormal institutional participation, confirming the validity of breakouts and trend expansions.
Bollinger Bands (20, 2): Statistical volatility bands set ±2 standard deviations around a 20-period SMA. Contracting bandwidth ('squeeze') signals an impending explosive breakout, while price walking the upper band confirms aggressive trend expansion.
ATR (Average True Range - 14): Quantifies absolute market volatility in rupee terms over a 14-period lookback. Essential for setting volatility-adjusted trailing stop-losses, target sizing, and detecting range expansions.
Supertrend (10, 3): Volatility-based trend-following indicator calculated with ATR. Provides clear Bullish (green trailing line below price) or Bearish (red line above price) regimes to manage active trade trailing stops.
Stochastic Oscillator (%K, %D): Locates current closing price relative to the 14-period high-low range. Fast line (%K) crossing above smooth line (%D) in oversold territory (<20) confirms a buy reversal signal; crosses above 80 warn of overbought conditions.
CCI (Commodity Channel Index - 20): Measures price variation relative to its statistical average. CCI crossing above +100 signals strong uptrend breakout; crossing below -100 indicates deep downward momentum; zero-line cross marks cycle shifts.
Parabolic SAR (Stop and Reverse): Trailing stop overlay that follows price acceleration. When dots plot below price, the trend is bullish; a flip above price triggers trailing stop protection.
Williams %R (14) & TRIX (15): Williams %R reflects momentum relative to lookback highs (-20 to 0 overbought, -80 to -100 oversold). TRIX is a triple-smoothed EMA rate-of-change oscillator filtering noise to capture major cyclical momentum waves.
Relative Strength (vs. Nifty): Measures the percentage outperformance or underperformance against the benchmark Nifty 50 Index. Positive values identify leading stocks commanding institutional capital flow.
Intraday Regime & Permission Gates: 4-gate hierarchical risk firewall evaluating intraday structure, volume effort vs result at day highs, ATR peak drawdown, and VWAP integrity to prevent buying into collapsing peaks.
Opportunity Score (0 – 100) & Risk Score (0 – 100): Dual independent quantitative ratings: Opportunity Score (≥75 top-tier setup) evaluates momentum, volume, pattern, sector tailwinds, and RS. Risk Score (<50 preferred) evaluates drawdown history, resistance proximity, and volatility.
Setup Archetypes: Algorithmic classification: Breakout Candidate (near 20D/52W high with expansion), Pullback Continuation (EMA20 retest in uptrend), Momentum Continuation (high RS5D + ATR expansion), and Reversal Candidate (extended mean-reversion).